The future is no longer theoretical

Big futurist ideas are rarely cautious. Even when predictions miss the mark, they push thinking about what the future could look like.

Ray Kurzweil, an American computer scientist and futurist, has long argued that humanity is heading toward “the singularity”, a point where human and machine intelligence merge.

Back in 1999, he predicted artificial general intelligence would arrive once computers could perform around a trillion calculations per second, which he estimated would happen by 2029.

At the time, many experts dismissed the idea as unrealistic.

But with Kurzweil’s timeline now only a few years away and AGI increasingly discussed, that early prediction is being reconsidered.

In his 2024 book The Singularity Is Nearer, Kurzweil reaffirms his views.

He maintains his near-term AGI estimate and suggests that by 2045, human intelligence could increase dramatically through brain-computer interfaces, potentially delivered non-invasively via nanotechnology.

Kurzweil describes this future as a blend of biological and digital intelligence working together.

Other thinkers share the view that some form of human-AI convergence is likely.

In 2024, academics Marcus du Sautoy and Nick Bostrom both spoke about a hybrid future where humans are no longer the only beings with advanced consciousness.

This raises wider questions about work, politics, and human identity.

Kurzweil remains optimistic, pointing to ideas like Universal Basic Income and rapid medical advances.

He argues that “longevity escape velocity”, where scientific progress offsets ageing, could be reached in the early 2030s, significantly extending human lifespans.

Past predictions about the future have often fallen short.

Still, Kurzweil has argued for decades that the late 2020s would be a defining moment for technology.

So far, there’s little evidence to suggest otherwise.

We went from “AGI is 100 years away” to “wait… maybe five” way faster than expected. - MG