Do layoffs really prove AI replacement?

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has outlined his expectations for AI in 2026.

He wants the industry to stop arguing about whether AI creates “slop” and instead recognise it as a practical tool that helps people think and work better.

On his personal blog, Nadella repeated the idea of “bicycles for the mind,” a phrase once used by Apple to describe computers.

He described AI as scaffolding for human potential, a helper rather than a replacement for human skills.

Job impact forecasts remain uncertain. In 2025, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested AI could disrupt many entry-level white-collar roles and raise unemployment within five years.

Research so far does not confirm this.

MIT’s Project Iceberg estimates AI can perform about 11.7% of paid work, but the project explains it measures how much work can be offloaded to AI, not how many jobs disappear.

Examples include automated paperwork for nurses and AI-written code.

Some fields are changing faster than others.

Graphic design, marketing content, and junior coding are often mentioned as pressured areas.

Yet evidence from Vanguard’s 2026 economic forecast shows that occupations most exposed to AI automation are currently outperforming the rest of the labour market in job growth and real wage increases.

Layoffs linked to AI are also complex. Microsoft reduced staff in 2025 while recording strong profits.

Other major firms made similar cuts as they shifted investment toward AI and new priorities.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates around 55,000 U.S. layoffs were connected to AI last year, with CNBC reporting large reductions across Amazon, Salesforce, Microsoft, and other tech companies.

Overall, AI continues to be widely adopted as an assistive technology. Both companies and workers are adjusting as the tools evolve and become more capable.

If my AI had wheels, it would have been a bike! - MV